Source: The War Zone – By Thomas Newdick – This Is What A Peacekeeping Air Policing Mission Over Ukraine Could Look Like

AI-Generated Summary

Here are a few highlights of the article:

  • UK Planning Air Policing Mission Over Ukraine: The UK is reportedly considering deploying RAF Typhoon fighters for a potential air policing mission in Ukraine after a ceasefire.
  • Objective: The mission would focus on monitoring airspace, deterring violations, and protecting a possible peacekeeping force without requiring a large ground troop presence.
  • Challenges: The operation would require significant resources, including aircraft, ground-based air defense systems, and operational bases, possibly in Poland. The UK alone cannot sustain such a mission and would need international cooperation.
  • Strategic Considerations: The mission would likely involve continuous combat air patrols, airborne early warning aircraft, and refueling support to maintain a strong air presence along Ukraine’s future border with Russian-controlled areas.
  • Potential Threats: The level of Russian military activity will determine the mission’s scale—ranging from routine monitoring to a deterrence posture preventing air incursions.
  • Political and NATO Concerns: The mission would not be covered by NATO’s Article 5 protection, raising concerns about how NATO and its allies would respond if Russian forces engaged the aircraft.
  • Future Ukrainian Role: As Ukraine receives Western fighter jets like F-16s and Mirage 2000s, it may eventually take over some air policing duties, reducing reliance on foreign forces.

Conclusion: While air policing is being considered as an alternative to a large peacekeeping force, it remains a complex, resource-intensive, and politically sensitive endeavor that depends on many factors, including ceasefire conditions, military resources, and geopolitical negotiations.

Abstract:

“Reports indicate the U.K. is already planning a future air policing mission over Ukraine, but staging such an effort is far from straightforward.

The United Kingdom is reportedly prepared to send Typhoon fighters to support a future air policing mission over Ukraine. The apparent proposal comes only a day after the leaders of several European nations met to discuss whether to send troops to help bolster any deal to end the Ukraine war, something you can read more about here.

The Times of London today cited a “senior government source” as saying that an “air policing” mission for Ukraine would make sense, although also warning that it would need significant numbers of aircraft, as well as ground-based air defense systems to protect the jets on the ground.

The same report suggests that British ministers have already discussed ways to provide security guarantees to Ukraine without the need for large numbers of troops on the ground. With that in mind, one proposal involves potentially “dozens” of U.K. Royal Air Force (RAF) Typhoons that would monitor Russian air activity and help protect a “smaller peacekeeping force of troops” from the United Kingdom and other European countries on the ground.

Previously, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that a future peacekeeping force might require as many as 110,000 foreign troops on the ground in the country, with perhaps three times that number in total to enable rotational deployments.

However, according to a report in The Washington Post, the European Union is considering a much lower figure, between 25,000 and 30,000 troops, which would be deployed for peacekeeping after a potential ceasefire agreement.

It now seems that a more powerful air policing contingent might be increasingly seen as a way of compensating for the smaller troop presence, which would otherwise be insufficient to monitor and patrol the extent of whatever Ukraine’s future land border with Russian-controlled territory will look like. Regardless of where the border will be redrawn and to what degree Ukraine gets parts of its sovereign territory back, this new border would become the line of control. (…)”

 

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Photo: French Air and Space Air Policing Mission involving Rafales and the MRTT air tanker over Poland  © French Air and Space Force, 2022  >>>  https://www.defense.gouv.fr/air/actualites/pologne-premiere-mission-police-du-ciel-commandant-anthony